2023 Super Bowl Preview, Prediction & Bets
Written By: Daniel Rebain
After 21 WILD weeks of a NFL season, we are down to the final game of the 2022 season, THE SUPER BOWL!
Going head-to-head are the two number one seeded teams from each conference, with the Philadelphia Eagles representing the NFC and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC. Winner takes home Lombardi trophy!
Who will win the game? Who will be MVP? What color will the Gatorade shower be? And will A$AP Rocky show up at halftime with Rihanna’s child? (Yes, that last one is a prop set at +350)
Here’s a preview of the biggest days on the sporting calendar in the United States and what to bet on while you’re watching with friends and family.
The Case for a Chiefs Win at Super Bowl LVII
One simple answer, Patrick Mahomes! When you have the best QB in the league you will have a chance to win any game that you play in. It also doesn’t hurt to have the best QB in the league TE in the league with Travis Kelce by your side.
The Chiefs led the league in total yards (413.6 YDS/G), passing yards (297.8 YDS/G) and points scored (29.2 PTS/G), in 2022.
But it’s been the running game with rookie RB Isaiah Pacheco that has opened a new dimension for this Chiefs team that they haven’t had in years prior. Pacheco has been the energizer bunny for the Chiefs offense down the stretch.
On defense the Chiefs are no slouch either, surprising their opponents every single week with their unique style of play. Led by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs are a VERY aggressive side.
With is unorthodox blitz packages, the Chiefs are able to get pressure on the QB, recording 55 sacks on the season, only bested by the Eagles. But even with a four man rush the Chiefs D-line is nothing to sleep on with Chris Jones and Frank Clark chasing after you.
If Patrick Mahomes is on his game, it will be hard to outscore the Chiefs. Mahomes has been here twice before, that experience will be a major advantage for Kansas City.
The Case for an Eagles Win at Super Bowl LVII
The real Eagles have woken up in the playoffs, outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 69-14.
Led by a running game with the best offensive line in the sport, third year QB Jalen Hurts, who was the MVP before his shoulder, and running back Miles Sanders have been impossible to contain in 2022. Once they get going, they’re too much to stop. And that’s before you can even think of A.J Brown and Devonta Smith in the passing game.
But where the Eagles will win this game is with their D-Line, they are unstoppable. Philadelphia lives in the backfield, leading the NFL in sacks with 70. It’s not a matter of CAN the Chiefs give Mahomes time, it’s a matter of HOW LONG can they keep Mahomes on his feet.
Uf Mahomes is unsettled in the pocket and tries to force some things, the trio of Darius Slay, James Bradberry & C.J Gardner-Johnson will make him pay on the back end.
The key will be to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline for a much as possible. If the Eagles can rush the ball between 35 to 40 time that will give the Eagles the highest probability to walk away from Super Bowl LLVI with their second Lombardi trophy in franchise history.
Super Bowl LVII Prediction + Bets
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Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Eagles -1.5 (-110), Chiefs +1.5 (-110)
- Total: O/U 51
- Money Line: Eagles -125, Chiefs +105
Note: Odds are currently from Draft Kings Sportsbook at the time of writing and are subject to change.
- Chiefs win 31-17
You never bet against Patrick Mahomes, and even on one ankle, the Chiefs have the better offense with the duo of Mahomes and Travis Kelce moving the ball down the field.
With the Eagles focused soley on stopping Mahomes and the pass offense, the Chiefs will lean on Isaiah Pacheco and the running game. Once the Eagles adjust, Mahomes will be ready to feast on a Eagles defense that hasn’t seen a QB like the 2022 NFL MVP this season.
And all Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has to do is suppress Jalen Hurts just a little bit and it will be Patrick Mahomes & the Chiefs lifting the Lombardi trophy for the second time in the past four seasons.
- Under 51
The over/under over the past ten years has been hit both sides each five times, but the past four editions of the Super Bowl has hit the under. With two of the best pass rushes in the NFL, Eagles having 70 sacks (1st) and Chiefs having 55 sacks (2nd), both Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are constantly going to be under duress.
You add that both teams have been effective running the ball down the stretch and into the playoffs, the Eagles all season long, the clock will be chewed for a big portion of the game potentially. Expect it to be in the mid to high 40’s.
Player Props: Any Time Touchdown
- Travis Kelce (-135)
- Jalen Hurts (-115)
- Miles Sanders (-110)
- J Brown (+105)
- Isaiah Pacheco (+115)
- Dallas Godert (+150)
- DeVonta Smith (+150)
- Jerick McKinnon (+180)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+225)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (+240)
- Kenneth Gainwell (+300)
- Patrick Mahomes (+370)
Interesting Prop Bets
- Travis Kelce O/U Receiving Yards: O77.5 (-130)
Travis Kelce is the clear-cut number one receiver in this Chiefs offense despite being TE. In two games this postseason, Kelce has a staggering 21 catches on 25 targets for 176 yards and three touchdowns. Kelce is HIM!
Dating back to the beginning of the 2020 playoffs, Travis Kelce has gone eight straight games in the playoffs with over 77.5 yards and Super Bowl LVII will be no different; Kelce will make it nine straight games.
*If you want some better odds, package a Kelce alt yards over with an any time TD*
- Opening Coin Toss: Tails (+100)
Four out of the last five Super Bowls the opening coin toss has landed on heads. Now a coin flip is 50/50 to land on each side of the coin, but for it to land 80% on heads the last five seasons is interesting. Based on the math we should see a tails on February 12th.
- Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+120) or Jalen Hurts (+125)
Instead of betting on a team via ML (Money Line), you can get a bit more value betting on the QB of the team you think is going to win the Super Bowl for MVP. Yes it’s a bit of a risk but since 2009 when Hines Ward won the Super Bowl MVP for the Pittsburg Steelers, 11 of the next 16 Super Bowl MVPs would be QBs.
QB is the most valued position on a football team and the odds are that whoever wins the game their QB will be selected as MVP for leading his team to the promise land.
- Any Time Touchdown: DeVonta Smith (+150)
The Kansas City defense, led by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, tends to usually focus on the number one receiver in an offense. In the previous two games these playoffs the leading receivers for the opposition have been Zay Jones (Jaguars) and Tee Higgins (Bengals).
Now it the focus on A.J Brown, who’s a top five receiver in the NFL, and the running game so expect Jalen Hurts to look for Smith downfield. Smith only needs one chance to make a play and walk into the endzone to cash your ticket.
- Color of First Gatorade Poured on Winning Head Coach: Orange (+300)
In the last 10 Super Bowls, Orange Gatorade has been poured on the winning coach three times. One of those time was when the Chiefs won the Super Bowl back in 2019 and is the second biggest favorite at this time of writing.
The current favorite at +165 is Yellow/Green. That color has only been seen THREE times since they started tracking this stat back in Super Bowl 35. No team uses Yellow Gatorade! Orange is a safe/good value bet.
- First Touchdown Scorer: Jerick McKinnon (+1300)
In the last six games of the season, Jerick McKinnon scored eight receiving TDs for the Chiefs, FOUR of them where the first TD for the team.
In the playoffs McKinnon’s reps have been somewhat limited but with gadget receiver Kadarius Toney banged up, we could see McKinnon heavily involved once the Chiefs get into the endzone. At +1300 it’s not that bad of a gamble.